Posted to the Gilder forum - September 26, 1999
The Roaring 2000s
This book was highly touted on this forum and I'm enjoying reading it. But it is interesting to note how out-of-date it already is and it has a copyright of 1998. Here are some examples:
Premium High Tech companies to invest in:
Microsoft, Intel, Dell, Gateway 2000, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, Compaq, Acer, Sun Microsystems, Oracle, Netscape, Nokia, Novell, Apple, Toshiba, NEC, Sega, 3Com, Broadband, IBM, Teledisc.
Re transoceanic cable and LEO satellite communications:
"Fiber optics, although potentially the ultimate two-way, interactive communications medium, have not materialized as anticipated...."
"Over the next 5 to 12 years...fiber-optic.... very low orbit satellites..."
He writes in 1998. Five years later is 2003, but it happened in 1999, 4 years ahead of his prediction!!!! He is counting on McCaw's Teledisc. No mention is made of Loral and Globalstar.
It would seem that in this new era "short term" means yesterday, "medium term" means next year and "long term" means about 2 years from now.
As Twain or Yogi said: "It is very difficult to make predictions, specially about the future." And now back to The Roaring 2000s...
It was not my intention at all to criticize Dr. Dent. I think his predicting formula for the economy as a whole is well thought out and it works. What I was trying to point out is that when you try to put names to successful and failing companies, you need different parameters, parameters like GG uses in technology, and, believe it or not, a shorter time frame.
The subtitle of "The Roaring 2000s" is: "Building the wealth and lifestyle you desire in the greatest boom in history." Here Dr. Dent takes it upon himself to tell you what to invest in. I think that this is too ambitious for a book. It is OK for a monthly report where the guru can change his mind 12 times a year. The technology is evolving too fast to risk putting these opinions in a hard bound book. Even if you say that you are in the market for the long run. Even if you say you will pick the companies based on the fundamentals of technology.
And, yes, I enjoy this forum enormously. I enjoy the humor, I enjoy the information, I enjoy the no-holds-barred approach when it is the right approach, I enjoy it when people praise me and agree with me, I enjoy it when people criticize me with well though out arguments, I enjoy the free giving of opinion and advice by most of the members.
Dent and other futurologists put a lot of emphasis on the impact of the information highway on business. I believe that the internet is the best weapon ever invented by man to assure man of his freedom and his human rights. I also believe that man will develop faster than ever because he created the internet. Please note my motto (after my signature).
Previously I had been a member of a technical CompuServe forum and was very impressed by the amount of teaching and learning that went on. But in this forum there is a level of discussion way above the simply technical. Here (even though some object to it as not being pertinent), we discuss things much more important for the human race.
Thank you all
"The internet cross-pollinates brains across five continents."
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Last updated June 22, 2003